Friday, 3 June 2016

Are the numbers penumbral?

The Modi government and the economic policy framers in India are being lauded for the impressive GDP growth, apparently making India the 'fastest growing economy in the world'.

People are going gaga over the government's phenomenal fiscal policies that yielded this phenomenal growth. Unfortunately, it is being credited for nothing more than a gross deceptive data.

As per the Chief Statistical Officer, TCA Anant,the exponential rise has been the result of total consumption of  1,40,000 crore rupees, which surprisingly was less than 30,000 crore just a year ago. A rise in Manufacturing from around 9. 5% to 12.6% in just a quarter FY is equally abstruse. IIP reported a rise of just 2% in factory output. Manufacturing, that forms 75.5% in the IIP, actually contracted by 2.8% . Moreover, production of Electricity and Gas has also supposedly increased to 9.3% from just 5.6% in the December quarter. TCA's figures have been deficient in credibility, both at the national and international level.


  • There has been a frightening drop of 17,000 crore in Investment. 
  • Gross fixed capital formation has also just maintained a decent growth of 4.4%.
  • Imports fell by 5% and Exports too fell by 6%.
  • Government expenditure in itself has been 'bad' at a mere 3.3%.
  • WPI inflation has fallen.
  • All state-owned banks are in red. The largest state-owned bank, State Bank of India, saw profits falling by 66%. Bank of India lost almost 6,000 crores in just one year!

This is about the Government. But the Private Sector isn't doing very well either.

  • Sales have been negative but wages, positive.
  • Intermediate consumption and expenditure of Private Cos has been way too less.
  • Students in institutes like IITs and IIMs are on strikes as there are no sufficient corporate job offers. Companies like Flipkart and its peers are literally running short of money, hence, the shortage in on-campus recruitment. If the economy is really growing so fast, what rational argument can the government put forward, explaining the dearth of jobs?
  • An increase of 15.5% in Private Profits isn't in line with the numbers that Companies have reported. Maybe India has a huge number of outperforming firms that are not even listed!

The real numbers can be adduced for the global lack of confidence in Modi's India. Beneath all the illusory glitter, India's growth rate, in reality, is a mere 4.4%, half of what is being projected. 

Let's hope this '7 POINT SOME DECEPTION' withers away and we get to see the authenticated facts.













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